INTRODUCTION
The roots of the current crisis in Ukraine are deep
and of course, are not confined to Ukraine. From the point of view of the
United States and most of Western and Central Europe, Russian President
Vladimir Putin has chosen Ukraine as the main strategy for his efforts to
rebuild the Soviet Union because of his strategic position in Central Europe.
And special influence over the Baltic States, power, and politics is a part of
Russia's strategy and plan to influence Ukraine. In this particular connection,
Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly made clear statements that he
considers Ukraine to be under Russia�s thumb.�
However, according to different sources president,
Putin wants Europe to play a key role in Russia's security because, over the
past two decades, the United States and most NATO allies have sought to subdue
Russia's influence in Europe. Russia's growing influence in Ukraine is crucial
to reviving Russia's status as a superpower, implementing Russia's ambitions in
a non-threatening way, and undermining Western efforts to avoid a new Cold War.
However, the current Russian - Ukraine crisis is a critical one in the
post-Cold War international system. The effect of this war is not only within
Russia-Ukraine but also made broader geopolitical impacts embroiling Russia and
the west. Before analyzing the causes behind this particular war, an attempt
has been made to explore the background of the political, and historical
developments within these two countries.
METHOD
This paper has attempted to explore the causes and
present status of the Russian-Ukraine war with Waltz's three Images
(Individual, Domestic Politics, International System). It also has tried to
understand the long-term effect on world politics as well. However, to develop
this review study, secondary sources have been taken into
account. To develop this review paper an attempt has been at various
secondary sources like books, articles, journals, newspapers, movies, and
documentaries as well. Thus, to explore the paper with Waltz's three Images it
has been attempted to connect the present to the past and analyses how it has
gone through a change over time. However, the collected information from
secondary sources has been carefully reviewed and scrutinized.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
A.
Background
of the Russian-Ukraine
War
When Russia first entered
Ukraine in 2014, President Putin-backed rebels took control of a large area in
eastern Ukraine. Since then, they have been fighting the Ukrainian army (Fisher, 2014). Moreover, armed conflict in eastern Ukraine erupted in early
2014 following Russia�s annexation of Crimea as well (Center for Preventive
Action, 2012).
The latest news, however, is
that the rebels are not only claiming control of the area, but also the whole
of Donetsk and Luhansk. There was an international Minsk peace agreement to end
the war, but the fighting did not stop there. And that is why the Russian
leader says he is sending so-called peacekeepers to the region (Hernandez, 2022).
The agreement was signed in
2015 in Minsk, the capital of Belarus. Where the main condition was to remove
military installations, military equipment, and mercenaries from eastern
Ukraine. Apart from this, special status was given to the separatist areas. The
agreement also mentions the deployment of its own police force and local
judiciary in the regions. However, Kyiv did not implement those agreements (Ghosh, 2022).
According to many sources
Russian president Putin has every now and then claimed that Ukraine is a puppet
of the West and has never been a real state. Another reason might be that
despite Ukraine's recognition as a country, the country has deep social and
cultural ties with Russia as a country of the former Soviet Union. Russian is
also widely spoken there.
Russia thinks that Ukraine
has never been a real state. He has said before that what is now Ukraine is in
fact "ancient Russian territory (Knispel, 2022).
Ukraine's desire to join NATO
and the European Union is another reason for the attack (Kocho-Williams, 2022). Because
Russia has been objecting to that for a long time. Russia has demanded that
Western nations assure Ukraine that it will not join NATO. NATO is a military
alliance of 30 western nations (Roth, 2021).
B. Status
of the Russian-Ukraine War
This particular paragraph will try to explore
Russian behavior in the course of the Ukrainian crisis. �According
to Demedziuk (2017), the Russian Federation, as a
successor to the former Soviet Union, is nowadays viewed as a world power in
the international arena. This is the first time since World War II that
Russia's armed forces have launched the largest attack on Ukraine by land, air,
and sea. Subsequently, the Russian president Mr. Putin announced a
military invasion in order to take care of the territory�s security and
Russia�s ethnicity in Ukraine. Immediately after his official announcement On February 24, 2022, the Russian military commenced
the �special military operation� in Ukraine.
According to the United Nations, since Russia launched a
full-scale military invasion into Ukraine on February 24, 2022, fighting
has caused nearly three thousand civilian deaths and internally
displaced more than seven million people (UNHCR,
2022). In addition to that, the ongoing fighting between these
two nations has forced another five million Ukrainians to flee to neighboring
countries the majority of whom have arrived in Poland, a NATO country where the
United States and other allies are helping to accommodate the influx of
refugees as well (Center
for Preventive Action, 2012).
C. Causes
of the Russian-Ukraine Conflict
It
is known from different secondary sources that NATO is the main reason behind
the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Firstly, there are different dimensions
and causes of the conflict in Ukraine, which include socio-linguistic,
economic, cultural, and political aspects that can be traced back into history (Zeb & Habibullah, 2017).
Apart from that, there are 30 countries under NATO. These include the United
Kingdom, the United States, France, and Germany. And Ukraine is trying to join
this group. With this incident, the tension between the two countries started.
On the other hand, US relations with Russia are already at an all-time low on
various issues. On the other hand, the United States is on the list of NATO
countries. Ukraine, meanwhile, wants to join NATO, along with the United
States, France, and Germany. Russia, however, is reluctant to see neighboring
Ukraine in the same group as the United States. Meanwhile, NATO has opened its
doors to Ukraine. This incident did not bring much relief to Moscow. On the
other hand, according to Van
Bergeijk (2019), �the
2014 sanctions against Russia illustrate the comparative vulnerability of the
European democracies and their weakness in organizing comprehensive sanctions
that bite.�
D. Important
to Analyze the Causes of War
It
has been observed from different sources that it the important to analyze the
core causes of the ongoing war between these two countries. The causes have
been identified that the war is raging between Russia and Ukraine and the
Russian troops are advancing slowly in the face of resistance in Kyiv. From the
political perspective, however, it has been clear that a number of military and
civilian people have been killed in violent clashes, and missile and artillery
attacks.
While
most people in the world avoid war, some people are prone to war.
Psychologists, sociologists, and anthropologists have been researching for
centuries why this happens. There are some psychological reasons why people get
involved in the war. According to evolutionary psychologists, there are certain
genes in human DNA that are responsible for humans prone to war. People get
involved in wars because of their strength, ego-satisfaction, etc.
To
understand the importance of the war, close attention needs to be given to the
Middle East and African regions because many countries in the Middle East and Africa
have been at war for years, but the world has not felt the heat as much as the
recent wars between Russia and Ukraine. One of the reasons for this is that a
country like Russia is embroiled in a war that has dragged on the world
economy. Economists say the impact could slow world growth by 0.9 percent.
Which, of course, made the video an overnight sensation. Not only the economy
but also the lives of the people are under threat. International human rights
groups have not been able to say exactly how many people were killed in the
attack that Russia launched on Thursday morning.
On
the other hand, the ongoing war may also be thought on the fuel oil which is
considered one of the reasons why the effects of the Ukraine-Russia war are
being felt around the world. Russia is the world's second-largest exporter of
fuel oil. As a result, oil prices have risen to 110 a barrel in the last seven
years. The low-income countries are in danger of losing more than the thunder
signal for the rich countries. Rising fuel prices have had an impact on the
overall transport sector. As a result, prices of food and other necessities are
skyrocketing. In addition, the stock market has fallen in most countries of the
world. Bangladesh is no exception.
But
the question is, is the West as vocal in the Ukraine war as it is in the Middle
East? Muslims from generation to generation, are in the role of spectators even
though they are beaten there. Especially on the Israel-Palestine issue. Which
reminds them of dualism.
E. Theoretical Background:
Waltz's 3 Images to Explain War
To understand and critically analyzed the ongoing war
happening between these countries Waltz's
3 Images is important to Explain. Because through Man, the State, and War,
Waltz became famous for his tripartite division of the levels of analysis
regarding the causes of war (Pechlivanis, 2012). Moreover,
particularly, it was introduced by him the term �image� for each level. �The
first image� finds the major cause of war in the first level of analysis;
�within man�. �The second image in the second level; �within the structure of
separate states� and �the third image� in the third; �within the state system� (Waltz, 2001). Waltz�s
core subject, however, is a range of positions taken on the causes of war and
the conditions of peace. He aimed to illustrate the assumptions underlying the
various positions taken and critically analyze their implications of the war
which is particularly pivotal to the analysis of the war in world politics.
On the other hand, it has been argued in Theory of International Politics,
that Waltz turned from destruction to construction and tried to do two things.
First, it was argued by him that the behavior of states was best explained by
the third 'image'. The structure of the international system, he argued,
conditioned and thus explained state behavior (Institute, 2012). In addition to this,
according to Darrington and Doherty
(2014), �in Man, the State, and War,
Waltz has pioneered the application of levels of analysis in explaining the
causes of war and international relations more generally.� Moreover, Waltz
posited that explanations of war could be grouped at three distinct levels or
�images,� as he called them. However, as the first image� explanations of war
focus on human nature and individual psychology, second image theories look
instead to the internal structure of states to explain war. For example, wars
may be caused by despotic or imperialist states looking to expand their
territory, by states attempting to overcome internal strife by uniting against
an external enemy, or by domestic political pressures that may make it costly
for states to pursue peaceful diplomatic solutions and finally the third images
talk about the internationals of many theorists (Wheeler, 2018).
F. Individual
level
From
an individual perspective, the ongoing war between these two countries can lead
to a longer effect on world politics. Basically, due to this war happening,
Ukraine has become the center of contention between the USA and Russia. On one
hand, Moscow would like the West to remain in Ukraine and other former Soviet
countries not joining NATO and listen to Russian words in order to avoid NATO
and Western countries� policies. However, Ukraine would like to join NATO which
has been considered negatively by Moscow resulting which the conflict has taken
place Russia has been observing that having joined NATO, provided that Ukraine
will allow NATO to get closer to the Russian border. Apart from that, if
Ukraine gets attacked by outside countries other than NATO members, it will be
eligible to receive backing from the group�s members. It is also assumed by
Russia that once Ukraine has joined NATO, it may attempt to take back Crimea
which has been revealed by Russian President Putin. On the other hand, after
the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia lost control of other 14 former
republics including Ukraine s well. That�s why Putin
considers this as tragic as both countries shared a single �historic and
spiritual space�. The Russian president demands guarantees from the West and
Ukraine that it will not join and that Ukraine demilitarizes and become a
neutral state (Staffer, 2022).
G. Domestic Politics, National
Level
From
the domestic politics and national level perspectives, there are many arguments
have been developed in order to explain the ongoing war. It has been observed
from different sources that before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia probably
hoped that it could easily capture the capital Kyiv without any obstacles. The
attack was probably planned out of that hope. The same is true of Russia's use
of light weapons and warships. The resistance that Russia has faced in Ukraine
has not only come from the country's armed forces but also from the people of
Ukraine who have put up a courageous resistance. The resistance has intensified
with the way Ukrainian President Zelensky has been leading the resistance from
the front lines (G�mez, 2022).
Another
scenario has been noticed on this battlefield that no other country has joined
forces directly to save Ukraine. However, they are using all means of
multidimensional resistance. In addition to tough economic sanctions,
especially from the European Union, the United States, and its allies, various
sanctions are building resistance against Russia (Consilium, 2022). As U.S. airspace has been
banned from flying to Russia, they have been temporarily expelled from various
international sports organizations. In addition, investments are being
withdrawn from other companies, including Russian oil companies, which had
large investments in Western companies. Investment has been withdrawn from
institutions like Gazprom. In response, the value of the Russian ruble has
plummeted. The price of one ruble has dropped below one American cent. They
probably did not anticipate such a massive response before the attack. That is
why in the face of so much resistance they are trying to take immediate action.
As Russia has announced, no foreign institution will be able to withdraw its
investment, or from now on, no one outside Russia will be allowed to accept
more than ten thousand. Eventually, it is clear that the consequences of this economic
embargo could be even direr.
H. International System Level
From
the beginning, Russia has been opposed to the expansion of NATO's eastern
border. Russia has accused the West of failing to honor its promises. Latvia
and Moldova have joined NATO. Russia fears that NATO will include Ukraine. In
that case, NATO's presence would be on Russia's doorstep. However, an analysis
of President Putin's speech before the invasion of Ukraine suggests that this
is not the only reason for the attack. He considers Ukraine historically part
of Russia and considers the birth of Ukraine as an independent state to be
wrong. In addition to Russia's security, Putin may have felt that there was
something wrong with the past. All in all, this attack starts from a complex
psychological situation.
On the other hand,
prior to the attack, various diplomatic initiatives were taken by Europe and
the United States. Talks have been held at the highest level, and even the
heads of state from NATO member France or Turkey went to Moscow to meet with
Putin (France,
2022). However, these diplomatic initiatives did not solve
the problem. They did not take any military action as they did not consider it
appropriate to take any other step outside of diplomacy. It should be kept in
mind that if a third state gets involved in this conflict, it may take a global
form, which is not desirable.
Apart from that, a
number of tough sanctions have already been imposed by the United States and
the European Union, and their coverage could increase. In today's world, if a
country is economically and otherwise isolated from the world, that is what
creates the biggest pressure on the country. As it turns out, Russia is already
under severe pressure. If the United States, NATO, or other countries were to
engage in direct conflict without following the path of sanctions, the conflict
would quickly spread to Europe and the world. To avoid this situation, no other
country has been directly involved in this conflict.
Another important
thing is that the main pillar of state power is economic power. Without it, it
is impossible for any country in the world today to plan anything. Due to the
economic sanctions and other sanctions that have been imposed, the Russian
economy and other sectors are already experiencing severe adverse reactions. I
have already said that the rubble will fall. Food prices are rising. The
international movement of Russian citizens is being restricted. Financial
transactions with foreign countries will be stopped due to sanctions on various
Russian banks and the exclusion of many banks from the Swift system. Its
effects on Russia's foreign exchange situation are beginning to be felt.
Moreover, Russia's 650 billion foreign exchange reserves have already been
blocked by the West (Gordon,
2022). Likewise, Russia's central bank sanctions have cut
them off from the world economy. In addition, all bank accounts of President
Putin, Foreign Minister Lavrov and many of Russia's richest people abroad have
been closed. Russia may not yet realize where the sanctions could extend, and
where they will ultimately go (Current
Time, 2022). However, there is no doubt that this will upset
Russia's economy and state system.
Eventually, the
crucial matter is that from the international perspective, Ukraine has taken a
bold stand against Russian aggression. Ukraine has been promised military aid,
weapons, and ammunition from various countries in the Western world and has
already begun to arrive. At some point, Russia may take over the whole of
Ukraine, though not very quickly. However, it appears that Ukraine's armed forces
may merge with the people to form a mass resistance against Russia. If the
conflict turns into a civil war, the conflict will be prolonged and Russia will
not be able to take full control of Ukraine. We know that it is very difficult
to maintain control over an invaded territory.
CONCLUSION
US relations with Russia are already at an all-time low on
various issues. On the other hand, the United States is on the list of NATO
countries. Ukraine, meanwhile, wants to join NATO, along with the United
States, France, and Germany. Russia, however, is reluctant to see neighboring
Ukraine in the same group as the United States. Meanwhile, NATO has opened its
doors to Ukraine. This incident did not bring much relief to Moscow.
In the event of a foreign attack on any of the NATO member
states, the country concerned receives the assistance of that member country.
And if Russia's neighbor Ukraine joins NATO, member states will come to its
aid. And Russia was angry at this. Moreover, in 2014, Russia entered Ukraine for
the first time. President Putin-backed rebels then took control of a large area
in eastern Ukraine. Since then, they have been fighting the Ukrainian
army.� There was an international Minsk
peace agreement to end the war, but the fighting did not stop there. And that
is why the Russian leader says he is sending so-called peacekeepers to the
region.
On the other hand, the current ongoing conflict is not
only remained between these two countries but also has severely strained
U.S.-Russia relations and increased the risk of a wider European conflict as
well. Moreover, severe tensions are supposed to develop between Russia and
neighboring NATO member countries as well which may lead to involve the United
States, due to alliance security commitments. In addition to that, the ongoing
conflict in Ukraine may bring broader ramifications for future cooperation on
critical issues like arms control, cybersecurity, nuclear nonproliferation,
energy security, counter-terrorism, and political solutions in Syria, Libya, and
elsewhere in the long run which might be watched as a result of this ongoing
war between these two countries.
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ANALYZE THE CAUSES OF THE
RUSSIAN-UKRAINE WAR WITH WALTZ'S THREE IMAGES (INDIVIDUAL, DOMESTIC POLITICS,
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM)